Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Romney's Silver Lining

ABC released a poll that is either bruising or reveals a very bruised Republican frontrunner. Mitt Romney's favorability rating is 34/50 (or -16). The poll finds that he is weak in his base, and has an unfavorable of 52% among self-identified independents.

I promised you a silver lining in the title, so here it is: President Obama's favorability among independents is also fairly poor. It's 46%. There's probably some overlap between the independents sour on Obama and Romney (after all, 16% of Americans are yet to form an opinion of Mitt Romney). The upshot is that independents may sit out the 2012 presidential election. If they do, the electorate will look more like 2004 than 2008, where President Obama brought a lot of new independent voters under the Democratic tent.

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